城市快速路建设时机的决策模型与准则

Decision Model and Criteria of Urban Expressway Construction Timing

摘要:

提出了城市快速路建设时机包括首条快速路建设启动时机和快速路网建设时序安排两方面，指出城市快速路建设时机存在缺少科学决策依据的问题.在总结国内典型城市快速路建设时机安排经验的基础上，分析了城市首条快速路建设启动时机的影响因素，提出了基于经济总量、人口规模、城市面积、机动车保有量等指标的启动时机因素模型和相应决策准则；分析了快速路网建设时序安排的影响因素，将各影响因素标度量化后，建立了基于土地开发（更新）、功能影响、交通需求、工程实施条件、建设资金等指标的快速路网建设时序迫切度模型，并提出相应决策准则.最后，以嘉兴市为例说明模型和相应决策准则的应用.

Abstract:

Two elements of urban expressway construction timing, which were the timing of startup of expressway and the construction sequence of expressway network were put forward. The dilemma that current urban expressway construction was lack of scientific decision-making basis was pointed out. The experience of urban expressway construction arrangement in typical domestic cities were summarized. Then, the factors affecting the timing of expressway construction startup were analyzed, and a factor model which based on gross domestic product, population scale, urban area, vehicle ownership et al was proposed with corresponding decision criteria. Then, the influencing factors of the construction sequence of the expressway network were also analyzed. Following the quantitation of influencing factors, an urgency model which based on land development (renewal) index, expressway functional impact index, traffic demand index, implementation condition index and construction capital index was proposed with corresponding decision criteria. In the end of the paper, Jiaxing expressway network was taken as an example to explain the models and corresponding decision criteria.