西南山地多灾区域道路网络可靠性规律分析

Analysis of Reliability of Road Network in Mountainous Disaster-Prone Areas in Southwest China

摘要:

为揭示西南山地城乡道路系统在多灾情景下的损毁机制，提升多灾地区路网可靠性服务能力，选取典型西南灾害多发区大渡河流域康定段作为研究靶区，采用复杂网络以及计算机仿真分析方法，建立区域道路网络模型以及多灾干扰模拟机制。以整体连通性和高效连通性为指标体系，在多灾情景模拟干扰下探索道路网络可靠性动态响应规律。研究表明：西南山地多灾区域城乡道路网络的可靠性受关键路段及地质灾害点地理位置的影响，不同等级的关键路段呈现聚类分布，据此提出相关应对策略。

关键词:西南山地多灾区域;道路网络;可靠性;干扰情景;规划应对

Abstract:

This paper aims to reveal the damage mechanism of urban and rural road systems in the southwestern mountainous areas in China in multi-disaster scenarios, and attempts to improve the reliable services capacity of road network in the disaster-prone areas. By selecting the Kangding section of the Dadu River Basin in the typical southwest disaster-prone zone, and by applying the complex network and computer simulation analysis method, it establishes the regional road network model and the multi-disaster interference simulation mechanism, and considers the overall connectivity and high-efficiency connectivity as the index system. The multi-disaster scenario simulates the reliability dynamic response law of road network in simulated disturbance. The empirical findings show that the reliability of urban and rural road network in the disaster-prone zone of southwestern mountainous areas is affected by the geographical location of critical road sections and geological disaster points, and the critical sections of different grades demonstrate the characteristics of cluster distribution. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some relevant countermeasures.

Key words:southwestern mountainous disaster-prone area;road network;reliability;interference scenario;planning response