综合体分时租赁小汽车对出行方式转移行为影响

Impact of Time-Sharing Automobile on Modal Shift Behavior in Urban Complex

摘要:

以综合体机动化出行的综合出行成本为切入点，采用情景分析法，构建多元Logit模型,研究私家车、出租车、分时租赁小汽车、公共交通方式成本变化对出行行为的影响。分析得出，随着出行方式由“私有化”转向“公共化”，由私家车到出租车到分时租赁小汽车到公共交通，出行者对车外时间的敏感度逐渐高于车内时间。随着分时租赁小汽车布点加密、车外时间缩短，由其替代私家车、公交等其他方式出行的意愿显著，但并不能降低“小汽车”出行比例。当同时采取公共交通车内时间缩短、分时租赁车外时间缩短、分时租赁收费上涨三个措施时，公共交通出行比例呈现缓慢下降趋势，分时租赁小汽车出行比例呈现缓慢上升趋势；而在此基础上如果同时缩短公共交通车外时间，公共交通出行比例才有可能实现回升。综合体发展分时租赁小汽车的同时，应仍然秉持公交优先的发展理念。

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the comprehensive travel cost of motorized trips to urban complex, and adopts the scenario analysis method to construct a multinomial logit model to study the impact of changes in the cost of private cars, taxi, time-sharing automobiles, and public transportation on travel behavior. The analysis shows that travelers become increasingly sensitive to out-of-car time than to in-car time, with the mode transferring from “private” to “public”, namely private car–taxi– time-sharing automobile–public transportation. The time-sharing automobile with the encryption of the location, the shortening of outside-car time, the alternative to private car, public transportation, and other means of travel is significant, which cannot reduce the proportion of private car use. At the same time, when the travelling time is shortened, the rental fee is increased, and the time for public transportation is shortened, the proportion of public transport will not be affected. With the development of time-sharing automobile, the strategy for public transport priority should still be pursued.