高速公路冰雪湿滑路面车辆换道越线时间生存分析

Survival Analysis of Time-to-Line Crossing of Vehicles on Snow and Slippery Road

摘要:

通过同济大学驾驶模拟器采集高速公路冰雪低摩阻路面换道驾驶行为数据，通过生存分析方法对换道越线时间（TLC）分布特征进行研究，定量分析潜在因素对越线时间的影响，并建立越线时间Cox比例风险模型。结果表明，路面摩阻系数每升高0.1或车速每提高1 km · h^-1，车辆在该时刻完成越线的风险率分别提高为原来的1.14倍和1.02倍，处于跟驰状态下的车辆完成越线的风险概率提高为原来的1.29倍，越线时间相应缩短；而换道初始位置每远离目标车道 1 m，风险率降低为原来的0.23倍，越线时间延长。此外，不同换道方向下的换道越线时间无显著性差异。

Abstract:

Lane changing behaviors on the expressway were studied by means of the driving simulator in Tongji University. The survival analysis method was adopted to study the distribution characteristics of the time-to-line crossing (TLC) in lane changing, and establish the Cox proportional hazards model by conducting semi-parametric survival analysis, to quantitatively analyze the influence of potential factors on TLC. The results show that factors such as the adhesion coefficient of the pavements, the car-following state, and the driving speed of the vehicle have significant influences on the TLC value. The hazard rate of the vehicle driving following the other to finish line crossing increases by 1.29 times of the one driving freely. Besides, for each 0.1 increase in road friction coefficient or 1 km ? h^-1 increase in vehicle speed, the hazard rate increases by 1.14 times and 1.02 times respectively, with the TLC being shortened accordingly. However, when the initial position of lane changing is 1m further away from the target lane, the hazard rate is reduced by 0.23 times and the TLC prolonged. In addition, there is no significant difference between the TLC in different directions of lane changing.