上海市公路货运量与经济增长关系的协整分析

Cointegration on Relationship of Shanghai Road Freight Traffic Volume and Economy Growth

摘要:

根据1990年～2005年上海经济与货运交通发展的数据,利用协整理论及其分析软件,对上海市公路货运量与经济进行协整分析.通过协整检验发现,公路货运量与经济指标之间存在长期的均衡关系.Granger因果检验表明,公路货运量与公路里程数、工业企业总数、国民生产总值(GDP)之间都存在单向的Granger因果关系.研究结果表明:目前公路运输对国民经济增长的促进作用的能量还没有得到充分发挥.相关政府部门则需要调整相关的产业政策及货运政策,引导公路运输向更为健康的方向发展.

Abstract:

Based on the economic and road freight traffic volume data of Shanghai between 1990 and 2005,a study is made of the relationship between road freight traffic volume and economy growth with the cointegration theory and Eviews software.A conclusion is drawn that there exists the long-term equilibrium between the road freight traffic and economy.The Granger causality test results show that there exists single Granger causality between road freight traffic volume and total road operation mileage,the total industrial enterprises,GDP.The impact of road transport on the economy growth is not remarkable.And the government should make more industry policy and road freight transport policy adjustment which can guide a more rational development for the road transport.