基于仿真和流量估计的服务性交通指标预测

Traffic System Performance Prediction Model Based on Microscopic Traffic Simulation and Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

摘要:

提出了基于应用微观交通仿真模型和短期交通量预测的服务性交通参数预测模型.根据实际的交通系统和研究目的建立应用仿真模型并进行模型参数标定和有效性验证.根据实时采集的交通量采用基于小波分析和ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)模型的混合模型进行下一时刻的交通量预测.将预测的交通量输入到应用仿真模型,根据仿真输出得到下一时刻的服务性交通参数指标.应用实例表明,该模型能够较好地进行服务性交通参数的预测.

Abstract:

A prediction framework based on the short-term traffic volume prediction and application microscopic simulation model was developed for short-term prediction of traffic system performance.First,an application simulation model was developed,calibrated and validated based on the real traffic system condition and research objectives.Then,a combined prediction model based on the wavelet analysis and ARIMA model was used to predict the on-line traffic volume for the next time step.The output from the application simulation model was used as the prediction of the traffic system performance based on the input of predicted traffic volume.The case study shows that this prediction model can output good prediction of traffic system performance.