上海市应对气候变化的碳减排研究

Shanghai’s Strategies for Carbon Emission Reduction As a Response to Climate Change

摘要:

分析上海市能源消费特征，估算上海市碳排放量、碳汇量及净碳源量.采用情景分析和数学模拟等技术手段，设计了12个情景方案分析上海市远期碳排放趋势.研究结果显示，上海市能源消费以工业消耗为主，2005年上海能源活动引起的碳排放量达到5 805 万t碳当量.与此同时，上海市万元GDP净碳源量持续下降，2005年降至每万元0.58 t碳当量，表明上海市在碳减排方面的举措颇有成效.情景分析结果表明，2020年上海市碳减排量有望达到11 104 万t碳当量.

Abstract:

The feature of energy consumption in Shanghai is analyzed and the total carbon emission, carbon sink and net volume of carbon emission in Shanghai are estimated. 12 scenarios of Shanghai’s future development are designed with the Scenario Analysis method. The result shows that main energy consumption is caused by industries in Shanghai.The carbon emission of Shanghai in 2005 reached 58.05 million tons carbon equivalent (Ceq). Meanwhile, the net carbon emission per ten thousand yuan of GDP declined to 0.58 tons Ceq in 2005, which shows that the strategies for carbon emission reduction in Shanghai are effective. The result of scenario analysis shows that carbon emission reduction of Shanghai is likely to be 111.04 million tons Ceq in 2020.