结构台风灾害风险评估研究进展

Typhoon Risk Assessment of Structures

摘要:

评述了国内外近几十年来结构台风灾害风险评估的主要研究成果,包括台风危险性分析、承灾体研究、结构易损性评估、损失估算、减灾措施评估、风险评估的动态性、不确定性分析和敏感性分析.其中,台风危险性分析的致灾因子包括台风强风、降雨、风暴潮、海浪等.结构易损性评估方法归纳为定性和定量两类方法,定量方法又细分为经验分析法、逻辑假设法、结构可靠度法、人工智能法.最后,指出当前研究存在的不足,提出了今后研究的建议.

Abstract:

The paper presents a comprehensive review of worldwide research efforts in typhoon risk assessment of structures during recent decades,which covers the following topics such as typhoon hazards analysis,exposure study,structural vulnerability assessment,loss estimation,assessment of mitigation measures,modeling changes in typhoon risk over time,uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis.The typhoon hazards comprise strong wind,rainfall,and induced ocean effects including storm surge and wave.The methods of structural vulnerability assessment are grouped into qualitative and quantitative methods,and the latter are further classified into empirical methods,methods based on logical hypotheses,methods using structural reliability analysis,and methods utilizing artificial intelligence techniques.Some limitations in current research are pointed out and recommendations for future research are given.