信号控制道路行程时间可靠度计算与实证

Computing and Demonstration of Travel Time Reliability on Signalized Road

摘要:

首先提出了一天不同时刻下的动态行程时间可靠度计算方法.然后以实际连续若干天的历史行程时间数据为基础，实证分析了信号控制干道行程时间分布、行程时间可靠度在一天中的分布变化情况.实证结果表明行程时间分布存在偏峰和时滞现象，否定了当前行程时间可靠度研究普遍认为的行程时间服从正态分布假设.最后分析了行程时间分布中的可靠系数、峰度统计参量与行程时间可靠度的变化关系.

Abstract:

The paper presents a method for computing real time travel time reliability measure at different time of a day. Travel time distribution and travel time reliability measure over one day were investigated and analyzed on the basis of the measured travel time data of a signalized road.Analysis results show travel time distribution is skew and hysteretic, which denies the widely accepted assumption in this field that the travel time distribution is normal distribution. The relationship between reliability index, skewness of travel time distribution and the travel time reliability measure were also studied.