道路交通安全现代化水平综合评价模型

A Comprehensive Model for Evaluating the Modernization Level of Road Traffic Safety

摘要:

在结合事故致因理论和哈顿矩阵的基础上,以层次分析法建立道路交通安全综合评价指标体系,经专家评定获得各指标对其所隶属准则的判断矩阵,并计算出各权重向量和最优权重向量.同时,以道路交通发达国家在其完成第一次道路交通现代化的具体时期内各指标具体数据,通过聚类算法获得现代化评价基准值.采用量化值加权函数法建立评价模型,并得到中国现代化指数随时间历程的变化数据,从而研究中国道路交通安全现代化水平及影响因素,并分析了评价模型的局限性.

Abstract:

Based on basic concept of accident causing theory and Haddon Matrix,the road traffic safety indicator system is established with analytic hierarchy process(AHP).The final weight vector is then calculated with the least squares distance method based on the weight vectors concluded from experts’ judgment matrixes.The evaluation baseline is drawn by means of clustering algorithm on the basis of the period data of the motorized countries during their first road traffic modernization.The quantitative value weighted function is adopted for establishing the comprehensive evaluation model,and the result turns out to be the road traffic safety modernization index.At last,the historical trend of Chinese modernization index is obtained,and the overall safety level and the individual indictors are studied.Also the limitation of the evaluation model is analyzed.