基于故障树的系统可靠性估计不确定性分

Uncertainty Analysis of System Reliability Estimate Based on Fault Tree

摘要:

针对系统可靠性优化问题，提出了系统可靠性估计不确定性的分析方法.通过定性分析，求出故障树的所有最小割集，把故障树模型转换成串并联结构模型；利用串并联系统可靠性估计方差分析方法求得系统可靠性估计方差，并把系统可靠性估计方差近似分解成组成单元可靠性估计方差的线性组合，找出对系统可靠性估计不确定性影响大的组成单元.通过鱼雷系统可靠性估计不确定性分析，证明对系统进行可靠性估计不确定性分析,有利于改善系统可靠性估计的准确性.

关键词:故障树; 不确定性; 可靠性估计; 可靠性估计方差; 串并联系统

Abstract:

Uncertainty analysis of system reliability estimate is presented to optimize system reliability estimate.All minimal cut sets were obtained through fault tree qualitative analysis.The fault tree was converted to series parallel system based on minimal cut sets,and the system reliability estimate variance could be approximately represented as a linear combination of the variance estimates of the individual components.Then,some components which have a great effect on the variance associated with the system reliability estimate are discriminated. Finally,efficiency and accuracy of the method was demonstrated through uncertainty analysis of an torpedo system reliability estimate.

Key words:fault tree; uncertainty; reliability estimate; reliability estimate variance; series parallel systems