引入母子公司关联因素的城际客运出行 分布预测模型

Forecasting Model of Intercity Trip Distribution with Consideration of Connections Between Headquarters and Subsidiaries

摘要:

从城际客运出行目的出发，分析了影响城际客运出行分布的关联性因素，探讨了各企业总部与分支机构之间的关联性对城际客运出行所带来的影响，并提出了母子公司关联系数的概念及量化方法。利用母子公司关联系数构建了城际客运出行分布预测模型，然后采用日本干线旅客流动调查起点?终点（OD）对数据和经济普查数据对模型进行标定。最后，给出了母子公司关联系数随时间变化的规律。结果表明：引入母子公司关联系数后，模型预测能力有所提高。

Abstract:

The influential factors which can describe the connection between cities when it comes to intercity trip distribution were analyzed based on the intercity travel purpose. The effect of the connection between headquarters of enterprises and their subsidiaries on the intercity travel demand was discussed, and a variable of headquarters-subsidiaries links was put forward. The quantification method of the variable was also included. The variable was used to construct the intercity trip distribution forecasting model, and the model was calibrated by using 2010 Inter-Regional Travel Survey data and economic census data in Japan. Finally, the variation of the headquarters-subsidiaries links with time was discussed. The results show that the forecasting model performs better after adding the variable.