基于网络购物行为偏好的上海市居民购物方式演替研究

Succession of Shopping Style of Shanghai Residents Based on E-Shopping Preference

摘要:

针对目前网络购物的研究缺乏对人们如何在实体店和网购之间做选择的定量解答和未来两种方式演替结果的预测方法， 利用上海市居民的4 608次叙述性购物选择，解析影响人们选择实体店或网购的主要因素及影响程度，并模拟不同情景下两种方式的吸引力变化。研究结果表明：商品的价格、质量、选购商品时间、交通时间以及实体商业类型对居民选择购物方式有显著影响；现状不同等级商圈中，地区级中心对网络购物的抵抗力最强；网店与实体店三种情景下的发展趋势预测表明，网络购物很可能会近期继续经历一段时期的高涨，继而经过一定幅度的回落，最后达到平稳的状态。

Abstract:

Researchers can rarely answer the question of how people choose between in-store shopping and e-shopping， let alone predict future changes in retail market. Thus， this paper aims to find an approach to explain the mechanism of shopping channel preference of residents and simulate scenarios in the future. 512 residents in Shanghai were investigated and 4 608 virtual shopping channel choices were made in total. The discrete choice model can well explain how people choose a certain channel in specific shopping situations. The five factors considered in the questionnaire include the price， quality， shopping time， travelling time， and the type of stores， which significantly affect the choice of shopping style. The shopping attractiveness evaluation indicates that e-shopping is more attractive than in-store shopping in general in recent years in Shanghai. Based on the simulation results of three probable future scenarios， it is speculated that e-shopping is likely to continue to experience a period of rise in the near future and then experience a certain cooling-off and eventually reach a relatively stable state.