考虑换道风险影响的城市快速路出口影响区车道管理

Lane Management in Off-Ramp Affected Zone of Urban Expressway Considering Lane-Change Risk

摘要:

为优化城市快速路出口影响区的交通组织，降低出匝车辆的换道风险，提高交通运行的安全性和高效性，依托上海自然驾驶实验数据，提取城市快速路出口影响区出匝车辆的轨迹数据样本，建立出口影响区换道风险评价方法及分级标准；针对三种常见的快速路出口，考虑人、车和路域环境方面的综合因素，利用二项Logistic模型构建换道风险模型，分析不同因素对换道风险的影响程度，以及一定条件下车辆存在换道风险的概率；在此基础上，根据出口影响区的车辆运行信息和换道风险模型，控制换道风险在合理范围内，得到出匝车辆的合理（最迟）换道位置，并提出相应的城市快速路出口影响区的车道管理方法。

Abstract:

This paper aims to optimize traffic organization in the off-ramp affected zone of urban expressway， reduce the lane-change risk of leaving vehicles and thus improve the safety and efficiency of traffic operation. Based on the dataset from Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study （SH-NDS）， the trajectory data samples of leaving vehicles in the off-ramp affected zone of expressway were extracted and lane-change risk evaluation method and classification standard were established. Targeting at three types of off-ramp areas of expressway， a lane-change risk model was established by using the binomial Logistic model， considering comprehensive factors in terms of drivers， vehicles， road and environment. Therefore， the influencing degree of different factors was revealed and lane-change risk probabilities were obtained. Based on vehicle operation information and lane-change risk model， reasonable（latest） lane-change positions of leaving vehicles were calculated and corresponding lane management methods were proposed when lane-change risk was within a certain range.