气候变化下长三角城市群基础设施脆弱性评估及空间分析

Urban Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment and Its Spatial Analysis of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in Climate Change

摘要:

城市基础设施是城市应对气候变化的关键环节。为了探究气候变化下城市基础设施系统的脆弱性及其空间分布特征，将脆弱性三要素理论与空间分析方法相结合，构建出气候变化下城市基础设施脆弱性的空间分析框架，并以长三角城市群各地级市为对象进行实证分析。通过脆弱性三要素的空间分布与空间相关性分析，发现三类要素的空间分布特征各异，脆弱性更多地取决于城市单元个体的行政级别、经济水平以及所属行政区域等因素，应将降低基础设施脆弱性的策略体系融入区域一体化政策中。

关键词:气候变化;长三角城市群;基础设施脆弱性;空间分析

Abstract:

Urban infrastructure plays a key role when city responses to climate change. In order to explore the vulnerability of urban infrastructure systems and their spatial distribution characteristics in climate change， we combined three-element theory of vulnerability and spatial analysis methods and constructed spatial analysis framework of unban infrastructure vulnerability in climate change. Empirical analysis was carried out through the data of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Based on the analysis of spatial distribution and spatial correlation of the three elements of vulnerability， it is found that the spatial distribution characteristics of the three types of elements are different. The vulnerability depends more on the administrative level， economic level， and administrative region of the individual urban unit. The strategic system for reducing infrastructure vulnerability should be involved in the regional integration policy.

Key words:climate change;the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration;infrastructure vulnerability;spatial analysis