通勤视角下的居家办公防疫策略

Home-Office Strategies for Pandemic Intervention from the Perspective of Commuting

摘要:

模拟比较若干居家办公策略对遏制传染病在都市区中传播的作用，为后疫情时期的防疫策略制定提供理论支撑。以上海为例，基于手机数据反映的职住与通勤现状，用多代理人模拟方法模拟病毒的传播，从整体?群体?个体层面探讨不同居家办公策略对传播的影响。发现随着居家办公人数比例增加，传播减弱，感染人群中青年人的比例减少，老年人的比例增加。个人通勤距离越远、家离市中心越近、工作地离病源点越近，越可能成为易感者和易播者。远距离通勤者对传播的影响最大。按距离选择居家办公人员比随机选择能更高效地遏制传播。

Abstract:

This paper aims to compare the effects of several home-office strategies to mitigate spreads of infectious diseases in metropolises using simulation approaches， in order to support formulations of pandemic interventions in the post-pandemic period. Taking Shanghai as an example， and based on the current situation of work， residence， and commuting reflected by the mobile phone data， a multi-agent simulation is conducted to simulate the spread of virus across the region. Besides，the influences of several home-office strategies are discussed from the macro， meso， and micro levels. It is found that as the proportion of the home-office population increases， the spread is weakened， the proportions of young people in the infected population decrease， and the proportions of the elderly increase. The farther the personal commuting distance， the closer the home is to the city center， and the closer the work place is to the disease source， the more likely is an individual susceptible and infectious. Long distance commuters have the greatest impact on the spread. Choosing home-office workers based on commuting distance can mitigate the spread more efficiently than random selection.