考虑桥梁结构运动的河口大跨桥梁事故风险因素分析

Analysis of Risk Factors of Estuarine Long-Span Bridge Considering Bridge Structure Movement

摘要:

为降低河口大跨桥梁的事故率、提升通行效率，基于嘉绍大桥的系统监测多源实时数据，研究气象、交通、时间和大桥结构数据对河口大跨桥梁交通事故发生率的影响。提取了通车运行4年内的事故数据，分别采用时间匹配法和随机抽样法抽取非事故数据，建立了条件logistic回归模型。结果表明，①交通流量、湿度是河口大跨桥梁交通事故发生概率的显著正影响因素；②平均通行速度是大桥交通事故发生概率的显著负影响因素；③当大桥处于高峰时间时，事故可能性会显著增加；④根据现有数据，大桥的挠度变化、结构振动和交通流中的货车比例对事故发生概率无显著影响。

Abstract:

In order to reduce the accident rate and improve the traffic efficiency， the influence of meteorological， traffic， time， and bridge structure data on the traffic accident rate of the estuarine long-span bridge was studied， based on the multi-source real-time data provided by the health monitoring system of Jiashao Bridge. The time matched sampling method and random sampling method were used to extract the accident data within four years of operation， and a conditional logistic regression model was established. The results indicate that the traffic flow and humidity are significant positive factors for the probability of traffic accidents of estuarine long-span bridges while the average traffic speed is a significant negative factor for the probability of traffic accidents. During peak hours， the possibility of accidents increase significantly. According to the existing data， the deflection change of the bridge， structural vibration， and the proportion of trucks in the traffic flow have no significant influence on accident rate.