沿海典型大跨桥梁桥址区台风极端风荷载预测与应用

Estimation and Application of Typhoon Extreme Wind Loadings at Typical Long-Span Bridge Sites in Coastal Regions

摘要:

基于日本气象局1951年至2015年西北太平洋最佳路径数据库，采用地理加权回归方法，分别建立了台风路径、强度和风场参数递推模型，并结合台风边界层三维风场解析模型，提出了适用于我国沿海地区台风风灾模拟的随机模拟算法。以深中通道伶仃洋航道桥为工程背景，开展了桥址区10万年台风随机模拟，分别构建了极值风速的重现期曲线、超越概率曲线和竖向风剖面等，可直接应用于指导桥梁的抗台风设计。最后，在考虑伶仃洋航道桥结构参数和气动参数不确定性基础上，开展了该桥的颤振可靠度分析，评估其在台风作用下的颤振失效概率和安全性能。

Abstract:

Based on the best track dataset of typhoon in the Northwest Pacific from 1951 to 2015 provided by the Japan Meteorological Administration， the typhoon tracking， intensity and wind field parameter models are developed utilizing the geographically weighted regression approach， respectively. A stochastic simulation algorithm that is applicable for the typhoon wind hazard assessment in southeast coastal regions of China is then proposed by introducing a three-dimensional analytical typhoon boundary layer model. A case study is conducted by taking the Lingdingyang Bridge as an engineering example， which is the main navigable channel in the Shenzhong Link project.A 100 000-year typhoon simulation is conducted at the bridge site. The return period curve， the probability of exceedance curve and the vertical wind profile of extreme wind speed are constructed respectively， which can be directly used to guide the wind-resistant design of bridges. Finally， the flutter reliability analysis of the Lingdingyang Bridge is performed by introducing the uncertainties of structural and aerodynamic parameters. Its flutter failure probability and safety performance under typhoon winds are evaluated.