地铁列车延误情况下乘客可容忍候车时间预测模型

Prediction Model of Passenger Tolerable Waiting Time Under Metro Train Delay Condition

摘要:

为预测地铁列车延误发生后不同类型乘客可容忍候车时间以深化非正常运营情况下地铁乘客出行行为方面研究，引入生存分析理论并建模。首先明确乘客可容忍候车时间的定义并分析其特征，在此基础上选择参数模型及Weibull分布构建考虑影响因素的乘客可容忍候车时间预测模型，最后通过行为（RP）和意向（SP）混合问卷调查获得的数据标定并检验模型。结果表明：乘客放弃等待而选择出站的意愿会随候车时间增加而增加；乘客可容忍候车时间与每周地铁使用频率、日常出行地铁全程耗时、整个行程预留时间、本次出行地铁全程耗时显著正相关；乘客上下班、上下学时可容忍候车时间小于购物娱乐等其他出行目的；日常地铁上下班乘客可容忍候车时间在5.4 min以上的概率高于80 %，但超过14.3 min的概率低于50 %。

Abstract:

To deepen researches on metro passenger travel behavior under abnormal operating conditions， a prediction model of different passengers' tolerable waiting time under the metro train delay condition based on the survival analysis theory was proposed. First， the passenger tolerable waiting time was defined， and its characteristics were analyzed. Then， a parameter model based on Weibull distribution was selected to build the passenger tolerable waiting time prediction model considering various influencing factors. Finally， the proposed model was calibrated by the data obtained from a survey in combination with revealed preference and stated preference. The results show that the willingness of passengers to give up waiting and choose to leave the station increases along with the waiting time. Moreover， the passenger tolerable waiting time is positively correlated with the use frequency of metro per week， the metro travel time of the daily trip， the buffer time of the whole trip， and the metro travel time of the current trip. Compared with traveling for entertainment or other purposes， passengers have less tolerable waiting time when commuting. The probability that the tolerable waiting time of metro-oriented commuters exceeds 5.4 min and 14.3 min is over 80 % and below 50 %， respectively.