考虑枢纽失效情形的客运枢纽层级选址模型

Hierarchical Location Model of Passenger Transport Hub Considering Failure of the Hub

摘要:

基于混合式服务模式，提出了枢纽失效和不完全信息条件下旅客依次访问备选枢纽的服务策略，并建立了有容量限制的可靠性层级选址模型。实例分析结果表明，该选址模型可以增加选址方案的可靠性，降低由于枢纽失效而产生的惩罚费用。模型参数敏感性分析结果表明，对于失效概率过高的枢纽设施网络，仅靠增加枢纽数量已无法提高选址方案的可靠性，而保持较高可靠性的枢纽设施网络在应对可能造成高损失事件时的弹性较高。

关键词:层级选址模型;城市群客运枢纽;不完全信息;失效概率;惩罚费率

Abstract:

Based on a crossed structure， a service strategy for passengers to visit alternative hubs in turn under the failure of the hub and imperfect information was proposed， and a reliable hierarchical location model with the capacity limitation was established. The example analysis shows that the model can enhance the reliability of the location planning and reduce the penalty cost due to the failure of the hub. Furthermore， through the sensitivity analysis of model parameters， it is found that for the transport hub network with high failure probability， increasing the number of hubs alone can not improve the reliability of the location planning， while the transport hub network with high reliability has greater flexibility to deal with events that may lead to high losses.

Key words:hierarchical location model;urban agglomeration passenger transport hub;imperfect information;failure probability;penalty rate