基于改进委托代理模型的关键链项目缓冲确定方法

Buffer Determination of Critical Chain Project Based on Improved Principal-agent Model

摘要:

为弥补现有缓冲确定方法未充分考虑人员心理行为等对抽取安全时间影响的不足，基于委托代理模型，以员工和主管间纵向信任为切入点，考虑了信任关系及行为偏好等对缓冲确定的影响，以双方自身收益最大为优化目标求解员工努力水平，并确定活动安全时间。最后，运用蒙特卡洛模拟技术验证了该方法。仿真结果表明，该方法确定的缓冲大小适当，能够以合理的缓冲为项目提供保护，缩短了项目工期，有效保证了项目完工时间。

关键词:项目管理;关键链;缓冲确定;委托代理;纵向信任

Abstract:

On the ground that previous buffer determination methods do not pay much attention to the psychological and behavior impact on the safety time extraction， based on the principal-agent model， this study selects the vertical trust between employees and supervisors as the breakthrough point by taking into consideration of the influence of factors such as trust relationship and behavior preference on the determination of buffer. It takes the maximum benefit of both parties as the optimization goal to solve the effort level of employees and determine the safety time of activities. This method is validated by Monte-Carlo simulation and proves to be appropriate to protect the project with reasonable buffer. The duration is shortened， and the project completion is guaranteed.

Key words:project management;critical chain;buffer determination;principal-agent;vertical trust