厄尔尼诺-南方涛动影响下月尺度水文模型参数可移植性

Parameter Transferability of Monthly Scale Hydrological Model Influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation

摘要:

以浙江省3个流域作为研究对象，采用两参数月水量平衡模型（XM模型）和四参数月水量平衡模型（ABCD模型），结合极大似然不确定性估计方法（GLUE）对水文模拟的不确定性区间进行估计，在此基础上，研究不同模型在ENSO（厄尔尼诺?南方涛动）和不同流域地理情况下的参数移植能力。结果表明，厄尔尼诺时期的参数移植至拉尼娜时期，模型模拟效果要略好于拉尼娜时期的参数移植至厄尔尼诺时期；参数少的模型（XM模型）参数移植合格率要优于参数多的模型（ABCD模型）；相邻流域间的参数移植效果要明显优于距离较远的流域；ABCD模型具有更好的空间可参数移植能力。

Abstract:

This paper, taking three watersheds in Zhejiang Province as the study objects, uses two models, i.e., the monthly water balance model with two parameters (XM model) and four parameters (ABCD model) to analyze the interval characteristics of hydrological simulation uncertainty in combination with the multiple objective functions of the GLUE method. It studies and analyzes the parameter transferability of different hydrological models under ENSO (El Nin?o Southern Oscillation) and different basin geographical conditions. The results show that the simulation effect of parameter transferability from El Nin?o period to La Nin?a period is better than that from La Nin?a period to El Nin?o period, the pass rate of the model with fewer parameters (XM model) is better than that of the model with more parameter (ABCD model). In addition, the effect of parameter transferability between adjacent watersheds is significantly better than that of remote watersheds, and the ABCD model has a better ability for spatial scale parameter transferability.