城市供水管网极端寒潮灾害影响特征与设防标准

Impact Characteristics and Fortification Standards of Cold Wave Disasters in Urban Water Supply Systems

摘要:

近年来随着全球气候变化，城市遭遇极端寒潮灾害频发，经常对城市关键基础设施大型供水管网造成破坏。为此，以上海市为例，研究城市供水系统寒潮灾害影响规律及设防标准，通过对上海市2020年底到2021年初的极端寒潮事件进行研究，分析寒潮过程中供水系统压力、流量、管道维修以及其他供水设施功能受损情况。结合近60年的气象资料，对上海市历年气象寒潮事件进行统计分析，给出当日最低温度、24h降温、48h降温、72h降温、过程最低温度及持续时间6个寒潮特征指标的分布规律。同时，利用泊松分布计算了上海市年最低温度的重现期和超越概率，提出了水表等外露设施的温度设防建议标准，并针对气温数据和管道维修数据进行关联性分析，从维修率的角度识别对管道运行造成不利影响的温度基准。研究结果可为长三角地区城市供水行业安全运行与灾害防控提供理论和技术参考。

Abstract:

The cold wave disaster impact law and fortification standards of urban water supply system were studied in Shanghai as an example. First， the extreme cold waves in Shanghai from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021 were studied， focusing on the analysis of water supply system pressure， flow， pipeline maintenance， and other water supply facility function damages during cold waves. Using the meteorological data of the past 60 years， the statistical analysis of meteorological cold wave events in Shanghai over the years was conducted， and the distribution patterns of six cold wave characteristic indicators， i.e.， the minimum temperature of the day， 24h cooling， 48h cooling， 72h cooling， process minimum temperature， and duration， were given. The Poisson distribution was used to calculate the recurrence period and the probability of exceeding the annual minimum temperature in Shanghai， and the recommended standards for temperature setting of exposed facilities such as water meters were given. The correlation analysis was performed by temperature data and pipeline maintenance data， and the temperature benchmarks that adversely affect the operation of pipelines were identified from the perspective of maintenance rate. The research results of this paper can provide theoretical support for the safe operation and management of the water supply industry in Shanghai.