城市轨道交通运营中断条件下乘客路径选择模型

Passenger Route Choice Model Under the Condition of Urban Rail Transit Operation Disruption

摘要:

为研究城市轨道交通运营中断条件下乘客的路径选择行为，首先依据运营中断事件对乘客的不同影响对乘客进行分类，并给出对应的路径选择策略。其次基于出行时间和出行费用2个因素确定了广义时间费用的计算方法。然后分析中断时长对乘客的影响，构建了中断下的乘客参考点的取值原则。最后利用累积前景理论和Nested Logit模型构造了乘客路径选择模型。算例结果表明：模型计算的乘客路径选择概率结果与实际统计结果相对误差不超过10%，具有良好适用性；乘客路径选择行为随中断时长的改变呈现动态变化，短时间中断下乘客路径选择行为变化剧烈，长时间中断下乘客路径选择行为相对稳定；乘客对出行费用的接受度越高，越倾向选择出行时间短的路径；乘客对中断忍耐程度越低，对路径综合价值越敏感。

关键词:城市轨道交通;路径选择;累积前景理论;运营中断;Nested Logit模型

Abstract:

To describe the route choice behavior of passengers under the condition of urban rail transit operation disruptions， a passenger route choice model was proposed. According to the different effects of operation disruptions， passengers were classified into different types and the corresponding route choice strategies were given. Then， the calculation method of generalized time cost was determined based on the travel time and travel cost. Considering the impact of the disruption duration on passengers， the value principle of passenger reference point in disruptions was constructed. Finally， a passenger route choice model was proposed based on the cumulative prospect theory and the nested logit model. The experimental results show the validity and accuracy of the model is less than 10% of the relative error between the calculated results and the questionnaire data. The passenger’s route choice changes dynamically with the change of disruption duration. It changes sharply in the short-time duration and is relatively stable in the long-time duration. The higher the passenger’s acceptance of travel cost， the more inclined they are to choose the route with a short travel time. The lower the endurance of passengers to disruptions， the more sensitive they are to the comprehensive value of the route.

Key words:urban rail transit;route choice;cumulative prospect theory;operation disruptions;nested logit model