上海郊区轨道站客流与站域出行活力匹配性研究

Matching Degree Between Ridership and Vitality of Shanghai Suburban Rail Sites

摘要:

依据手机信令数据构建站域活力指标对站域人群出行强度与范围进行测度，针对站域活力与站点客流量的匹配差异性，利用象限法将上海郊区77个轨道站分为3类，即高活力高客流、高活力低客流、低活力低客流，分别占比38%、18%、44%。结合站域开发强度、轨道自身性质等多维属性构建多分类Logit模型，结果表明，相对于高活力高客流站点，高活力低客流站点主要分布于未直接穿越城市主城区的线路上，更需要提高轨道竞争力及地面公交与轨道的接驳水平、降低站域人群对小汽车的依赖度来提高客流；低活力低客流站点，主要分布于开发密度低的远郊，加强站域开发水平是提高站域活力与客流的关键。研究结果为超大和特大城市郊区轨道站点客流与站域活力两者协同发展机理提供参考。

Abstract:

This paper first constructs a vitality index based on mobile phone signaling data to measure the crowd travel intensity and scope in site service area. Based on the matching degree of ridership and vitality， 77 rail stations in suburban Shanghai are divided into three groups： high vitality and high ridership， high vitality and low ridership， and low vitality and low ridership， accounting for 38%， 18% and 44% respectively. The multinominal Logit model is developed with multi-dimensional attributes， such as development intensity of station service area and service level of the rail. The results show that compared with rail stations whose vitality and ridership are both high， rail stations with a high vitality but a low ridership are mainly distributed on the lines that do not directly pass through the main urban area， and it is more necessary to strengthen the service level of the rail and reduce crowd dependence on cars to improve rail ridership. Rail stations with a low vitality and a low ridership are mainly distributed in outer suburbs with a low development density and strengthening the development level of the site service area is the key to improve vitality and ridership. This paper provides a novel research perspective for the synergistic development of ridership and vitality of suburban rail sites in large cities.