基于安全知识库的轨道交通安全预评价方法

A Pre-Evaluation Method for Rail Transit Safety Based on a Safety Knowledge Base

摘要:

在当前城市轨道交通快速发展的需求下，国内轨道交通安全相关系统的预评价方法尚不成熟，积累的各类故障、事故案例无法得到有效共享，导致实际工程中预评价工作难以开展。首先，构建了基于本体推理规则的Man（人员）、Machine（设备）、Media（环境）、Management（管理）及Mission（任务）的5M多因素信号系统安全知识库。其次，阐述信号系统预评估过程，结合案例分析和应用，形成了基于安全知识库的轨道交通安全预评价方法。最后，从风险辨识质量和风险控制精准度等多方面将基于安全知识库的轨道交通安全预评价方法与一般预评价方法进行比较，结果表明该方法能够从全生命周期角度对信号系统分阶段风险进行辨识并评定风险损失，风险辨识质量高、风险控制精准度高，且该方法的实施有利于加强城市轨道交通事前安全管理效果，同时也可为安全相关系统的风险预评价理论研究提供参考。

关键词:轨道交通;信号系统;安全预评估;全生命周期;安全知识库

Abstract:

With the rapid advancement of urban rail transit systems， the existing pre-evaluation practices for safety-related domains within domestic railway transport remain immature. The inability to share accrued cases of faults and accidents expedites the challenge in executing practical pre-evaluation tasks. First， a 5M（man， machine， media， management， and mission） multi-factor signal system security knowledge based on ontology reasoning rules is constructed. Then the pre-evaluation process of the signal system is elaborated. Evolving from case analysis and practical application， a novel rail transit safety pre-evaluation system is formed relying on a safety knowledge base. Finally， the rail transit safety pre-evaluation method based on safety knowledge base is compared with the general pre-evaluation method from the aspects of risk identification quality and risk control accuracy. The results verify that this approach can identify and appraise risk factors within signal system stages， spanning its complete lifecycle， with superior quality and precision in risk identification and control. The deployment of this methodology bolsters the strength of pre-safety management effectiveness in urban rail transit and provides a reference framework for theoretical investigations on risk pre-evaluation within safety-related domains.

Key words:urban rail transit;signalling system;safety pre-evaluation;life circle;safety knowledge base