航运中心与城市经济互动关系分析——上海与新加坡比较

Analysis of Interactive Relationship Between Shipping Center and City Economy：A Comparison Between Shanghai and Singapore

摘要:

港口与城市经济的协调发展有助于提高港口竞争力和城市影响力。以上海和新加坡为比较对象，采用熵权?灰色关联模型探究港口与城市经济的关联度。通过构建向量自回归模型，从对外贸易、生产总值和产业结构探究港城互动关系。结果表明，城市经济与航运中心存在较强关联。新加坡对外贸易与港口间具有稳定的双向促进效应，上海市外向型经济对航运中心的驱动作用较弱。上海市生产总值能为港口发展提供有力的腹地支撑，港口对城市生产总值的辐射带动效应并不明显。上海市第三产业与港口间存在长期的潜在拉动力，但现阶段上海市第二产业对航运中心的发展仍起主导作用。从长期效果看，第三产业扩张政策对航运中心的促进作用强于第二产业。针对上述结论，分析原因并提出增强港口韧性、促进“港产城”融合发展等建议。

Abstract:

The coordinated development of the port-city economy can enhance the competitiveness and influence of the port. This paper conducts a comparative analysis between the international shipping centers of Shanghai and Singapore. Employing the entropy weight-gray correlation model and the vector autoregressive model， it examines the interactive relationship between the port and the city， focusing on foreign trade， gross product value， and industrial structure. The findings reveal a strong correlation within the port-city economy. In Singapore， foreign trade and port exhibit a stable two-way promotion effect， whereas the export-oriented economy in Shanghai has a modest driving effect on the shipping center. The GDP of Shanghai emerges as a pivotal support for the port， although the radiating effect of the shipping center on GDP appears less pronounced. A long-term driving force is identified between tertiary industry and the port in Shanghai. The secondary industry in Shanghai exerts a predominant influence on the shipping center. Therefore， policies promoting the expansion of the tertiary industry demonstrate a more potent influence on the shipping center than those favoring the secondary industry. Based on the conclusions， it proposes some suggestions， such as bolstering port resilience and integrating port-industry-city development.