长三角一体化区域建筑业碳达峰预测与减排研究

Carbon Peak Prediction and Emission Reduction in Construction Industry of Yangtze River Delta Under Regional Development

摘要:

为研究长三角地区建筑业碳排放趋势及减排路径，建立了随机森林与回归分析相结合的建筑业碳排放模型，针对长三角地区进行了基准情景和减排情景分析。结果表明，长三角建筑业总体在2035年实现碳达峰，上海和浙江可以在未采取额外减排措施的情况下，于2030年前实现建筑业碳达峰。至2060年，常规减排措施可减少47.84%~60.99%的碳排放，其中“减少新建、以改代拆”的减排力度最大，可以减少13.54%~18.65%的碳排；一体化政策可以在常规减排的基础上再减少2.71%~18.34%的碳排；在各减排措施理想化实施的条件下，长三角各地建筑业需要借助外部措施（例如社会电力清洁化）再减排13.26%~17.12%，从而达到2060年碳中和。该结论可为其他一体化区域的建筑业低碳发展提供研究思路和依据。

Abstract:

To study the trends and reduction pathways of carbon emissions in the construction industry of the Yangtze River Delta region， this paper establishes a carbon emission model combining random forest and regression analysis. Baseline and emission reduction scenarios for the Yangtze River Delta region are analyzed. The results show that the overall construction industry in the Yangtze River Delta will reach its carbon peak by 2035. Shanghai and Zhejiang can achieve their carbon peak in the construction industry by 2030 without taking additional mitigation measures. By 2060， conventional reduction measures can reduce carbon emissions by 47.84% to 60.99%， with the most significant reduction achieved through "reducing new construction and replacing demolition with renovation，" which can reduce emissions by 13.54% to 18.65%. Integrated policies can further reduce carbon emissions by an additional 2.71% to 18.34% on top of conventional reductions. Under the ideal implementation of various mitigation measures， the construction industry in different areas of the Yangtze River Delta will need to rely on external measures （such as green social electricity） to further reduce emissions by 13.26% to 17.12%， achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. The findings from this study can provide research ideas and a basis for low-carbon development in the construction industry of other integrated regions.