基于贝叶斯分层模型的液化侧移稳健的易损性分析方法

Hierarchical Bayesian Model-based Robust Fragility Assessment Method for Liquefaction-induced Lateral Displacement

摘要:

提出了一种基于贝叶斯分层模型的液化侧移稳健的易损性分析方法。采用贝叶斯分层模型量化不同增量动力分析（IDA）曲线间的差异，结合抽样方法预测潜在侧移的分布，建立液化侧移稳健的易损性曲线和超越概率曲线。以一处实际发生过液化侧移的场地为例，展示了稳健的易损性曲线及超越概率曲线的建立方法，并与相关方法进行比较。结果表明，所提出的方法可以较好地模拟IDA曲线的分布，较为准确地量化易损性曲线和超越概率曲线的不确定性。

Abstract:

This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model-based robust fragility assessment method for liquefaction-induced lateral displacement. The difference between incremental dynamic analysis （IDA） curves is quantified by the hierarchical Bayesian model， the distribution of the lateral displacement is predicted with the sampling method， and the robust fragility and exceedance curve for the liquefaction-induced lateral displacement are established. Finally， a sample site that has experienced the liquefaction-induced lateral displacement is taken to illustrate the process of establishing the robust fragility and exceedance curve based on the proposed method. The results are compared with relevant methods and it is shown that the proposed method can accurately simulate the distribution of IDA curves， and quantify the uncertainty associated with the robust fragility and exceedance curve.