夜光遥感视角下俄乌冲突态势分析与经济影响评估

Analysis of Russia-Ukraine Conflicts Situation and Its Economic Impact Using Night-Time Light Remote Sensing

摘要:

利用月度时序夜光遥感数据，选取乌克兰全境为研究区域，在国家、州和城市等不同空间尺度下分析了俄乌冲突的态势进展和热点区域。通过结合年度夜间灯光分布，生成了国民生产总值（GDP）时空变化图，进一步分析俄乌冲突对经济的影响。结果显示，冲突爆发初期，乌克兰全境灯光强度明显减弱；随着乌克兰进行反攻行动，灯光强度开始回升，这一变化的时间节点与冲突中重大事件发生的时间相符。在冲突期间，首都和俄占区的灯光减弱不明显，而那些距离俄罗斯较近、发生冲突较频繁的州灯光损失较为严重。空间自相关分析结果显示，灯光分布在冲突期间呈现显著的正相关性，但在冲突不同阶段，灯光的聚类分布和冷热点位置存在差异。基于夜间灯光的GDP空间化分布结果表明，俄乌冲突导致了除首都、沿海城市和俄占区之外的其他地区经济大幅下滑；灯光损失严重的区域与乌克兰主要农作物产区较为一致，这将导致农作物产量下降，从而影响整体经济。

Abstract:

This paper analyzed the situation and course of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict based on time-series night-time light remote sensing data， and further investigated the economic impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in relation to the spatial and temporal variations in gross domestic product（GDP）. There was a significant reduction in light intensity at the beginning of the conflict and a recovery in light intensity at a later stage， with the timing of the light changes being consistent with major events in the conflict. The capital city and Russian-occupied areas did not show a significant decrease in light during the conflict， whereas the states where conflict occurs were more frequently significantly affected. Light distributions showed significant positive correlations throughout the conflict. However， there were differences in clustering distributions and hot and cold spot locations at different stages of the conflict. The spatial distribution of GDP shows that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a sharp economic decline in other regions except the capital， port cities and Russian-occupied areas. Areas with heavy light losses were more consistent with the main crop production areas in Ukraine， which will lead to a decrease in crop yields and thus affect the economy.