突发事件下高铁网络延误弹复性

Resilience of High-Speed Railway Network Delay During Emergencies

摘要:

高铁一般性突发事件导致的网络短时能力损失可引发列车延误。引入弹复性的概念评价高铁网络应对延误的恢复能力，提出高铁网络延误弹复性。从恢复程度和恢复速度两个测度建立评价指标，以评价高铁网络在一般性突发事件下的延误恢复能力。研究基于运行调整的路网延误弹复性分析方法，构建事件发生区段和相邻区段的延误弹复性优化多目标混合整数规划模型，并以华东局部高铁网络为例进行算例分析。最后对一般性突发事件下高速铁路延误传播特征进行分析，为铁路调度管理部门在突发事件下的高铁网络运行调整提供依据。

关键词:高速铁路;弹复性;突发事件;延误传播;运行调整

Abstract:

This paper investigates the issue of network short-term capacity loss due to general emergencies on high-speed rail （HSR）， which results in train delays. It introduces the concept of resilience to evaluate the recovery ability of HSR network from delays and proposes a definition for HSR network delay resilience. It establishes evaluation indicators based on two metrics， recovery degree and recovery speed， to assess the delay recovery ability of HSR network during general emergencies. Additionally， it explores methods for network delay resilience analysis and optimization through operation adjustment， and develops a multi-objective mixed integer programming model for delay resilience optimization in the affected section and adjacent sections. Moreover， it conducts a case study using the partial HSR network of the East China Bureau. Finally， it analyzes the propagation characteristics of HSR delays during general emergencies， providing insights for HSR dispatching management in adjusting operations.

Key words:high-speed rail（HSR）;resilience;emergency;delay propagation;operation adjustment