考虑分时段上下学的小学临时停车需求预测分析

Forecast and Analysis of Temporary Parking Demand of Primary School Considering Time-segmented School Commuting

摘要:

预测家长的临时停车需求对于学校门前区域车位的规划和管控极为重要。基于临时停车需求特点分析，选用排队论模型对小学家长上、下学接送的临时停车需求分别进行预测，同时考虑到分时段上下学是缓解停车矛盾的有效措施，建立了分时段间隔的停车需求预测模型，综合考虑了学生数、家长机动车接送比例、间隔时长、提前到达比例等多个关键参数，为学校区域停车规划和管理提供参考。最后结合实际案例，展示了方法应用，并从学校层面提出了减少停车供需矛盾的建议，对于学校区域通学时段交通拥挤的缓解具有重要意义。

Abstract:

The prediction of parents' temporary parking needs is extremely important for the planning and control of parking spaces in front of school gates. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of temporary parking demand， the queuing theory model is used to predict the temporary parking demand of primary schools’ parents. And considering that the time-segmented school commuting is an effective measure to alleviate parking conflicts， a time-interval parking demand prediction model is established， and considering several key parameters， such as the number of students， the proportion of parents' vehicle using， the interval time， the proportion of early arrival， to provide reference for the planning and management of school parking. Finally， combined with a practical case， the application of the method is demonstrated， and the suggestions to reduce the contradiction between supply and demand of parking are put forward from the school side， which is of great significance for the alleviation of traffic congestion during school commuting hours.