基于源导向的长江口地区重金属健康风险评价

Source-oriented Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Yangtze River Estuary

摘要:

以长江口地区为研究对象，研究潮周期过程中重金属浓度变化及沉积物重金属来源，结合健康风险评估模型和蒙特卡洛模型评估潜在的人体健康风险。结果发现：潮周期过程中，沉积物中的重金属在涨潮初期、高潮前后及落潮末期出现较高含量。研究区重金属主要来源于交通、工业、大气沉降和农业，贡献率分别为25.9%、33.9%、18.2%和21.9%。研究区内土壤重金属对儿童和成人存在人体可接受的致癌风险，并且儿童的风险程度大于成年人，非致癌风险可忽略。综合考虑重金属分布、来源与健康风险的关系发现，农业污染为研究期间的沉积物重金属的主要来源，砷的致癌风险最大。

Abstract:

This paper takes the Yangtze River Estuary as the research object， studies the changes in heavy metal concentrations and the sources of heavy metals in sediments during the tidal cycle， and combines the health risk assessment model and the Monte Carlo model to evaluate potential human health risks. The results show that during the tidal cycle， heavy metals in sediments have higher levels at the beginning of high tide， before and after high tide， and at the end of low tide. The heavy metals in the study area mainly come from transportation， industry， atmospheric deposition and agriculture， with contribution rates of 25.9%， 33.9%， 18.2% and 21.9%， respectively. Heavy metals in the soil in the study area have an acceptable carcinogenic risk to children and adults， and the risk level for children is greater than that for adults， and the non-carcinogenic risk can be ignored. Comprehensively considering the relationship between the distribution and source of heavy metals and health risks， it is found that agricultural pollution is the main source of heavy metals in sediments during the study period， and arsenic has the greatest carcinogenic risk.