基于渗流理论的城市交通网络与供水管网级联失效分析

Assessment of Cascading Failures in Transportation and Water Supply Networks Based on Percolation Theory

摘要:

为解决交通网络与供水管网之间耦合关系所引发各类突发事件级联失效作用及其建模量化问题，以上海市中心城区为案例，利用出租车GPS数据及道路、供水管网GIS（Geographic Information System）数据，通过空间匹配和时间属性融合建立动态耦合网络，基于渗流理论提出网络影响力指数用于量化级联失效影响。结果表明，交通网络和供水管网之间存在显著的时空耦合效应，尤其在高峰时段供水管网的失效对交通网络的连通性和运行效率产生了直接影响。同时，通过构建解耦策略，提出管网规划和维护优化方案，可减少2个网络之间跨网络级联失效影响，可为提升城市关键基础设施韧性安全与运行可靠性提供参考。

Abstract:

To address the modeling and quantitative assessment of cascading failures in emergency events induced by the coupling between transportation networks and water supply networks， this study takes the central urban area of Shanghai as a case study. Using Taxi GPS data， along with GIS （geographic information system） data for road and water supply networks， it constructs a dynamically coupled network through spatial matching and temporal attribute integration. Based on percolation theory， it proposes a network influence index to quantify the impacts of cascading failures. The results indicate that there are significant spatiotemporal coupling effects between the transportation network and the water supply network. In particular， during peak hours， failures in the water supply network have a direct impact on the connectivity and operational efficiency of the transportation network. Furthermore， by developing decoupling strategies， it proposes optimization schemes for network planning and maintenance， which can reduce cross-network cascading failure effects between the two networks. These findings provide a useful reference for enhancing the resilience， safety， and operational reliability of critical urban infrastructure systems.