基于机器学习方法的社会融资规模驱动因素

Driving Factors of Total Social Financing Based on Machine Learning Methods

摘要:

近年来社会融资规模扩张动能减弱，为厘清其背后的深层成因并探索驱动其增长的有效路径，采用XGBoost算法与2种解释性工具，剖析影响社会融资规模的关键因素，得到比较一致的结论。研究结果表明：消费和投资是社会融资规模增长的关键驱动力。分时间的脉冲响应分析显示，2012年后投资驱动社会融资规模能力逐渐减弱，而消费驱动能力逐渐增强。消费市场疲软是近期拖累社会融资规模增长的主要因素。进一步分析我国不同地区之间的差异，发现消费对社会融资规模的驱动作用具有区域差异，在东部地区效果最强。建议应更好地发挥消费的基础性作用，逐渐形成“以消促投”的良性循环，最终以消费和投资“双轮”驱动社会融资规模稳健增长。

Abstract:

In recent years， the momentum behind the expansion total social financing has shown signs of stagnation. To underlying causes and explore effective pathways to stimulate its growth， this paper employs the XGBoost algorithm along with two interpretability tools to analyze the key factors influencing total social financing growth， yielding consistent and robust results. The findings indicate that consumption and investment are the primary driving forces behind total social financing growth. Time-varying impulse response analysis reveals that since 2012， the ability of investment to drive total social financing has gradually weakened， while the driving role of consumption has steadily increased. The sluggish consumer market has emerged as the main factor restraining recent total social financing expansion. Further regional analysis suggests that the driving effect of consumption on financing growth exhibits spatial heterogeneity， with the eastern region experiencing the strongest impact. Accordingly， this paper recommends to better leverage the fundamental role of consumption to foster a virtuous cycle of “consumption-led investment，” ultimately achieving steady growth in total social financing through a dual engine of consumption and investment.