沿海大型造船基地工程韧性评估技术研究进展

Research Progress in Resilience Assessment Technology for Large Shipbuilding Base Engineering

摘要:

通过文献计量与关键词分析，揭示沿海工程领域的研究重点已由单一灾害风险评估逐步转向多灾害背景下的区域韧性与适应性。系统梳理了韧性评价指标体系的构建进展，综述了基于非线性动力学模拟、Copula函数及蒙特卡洛方法等的多灾害概率风险评估流程，以及涵盖了多目标优化设计、新型结构体系、新材料应用及智能监测技术等的韧性提升手段。同时指出，现有评价体系结构复杂，多灾害叠加效应显著，且计算需求较高。未来研究应整合多尺度分析方法，基于AI与GIS技术实现智能化风险预测与动态评估，保障大型造船基地安全运行与快速恢复。

Abstract:

This paper， employing bibliometric and keyword analyses， reveals that research in coastal engineering has gradually shifted from single-hazard risk assessment to regional resilience and adaptability under multi-hazard scenarios. It systematically reviews advances in the development of resilience evaluation frameworks， summarizes multi-hazard probabilistic risk assessment processes based on nonlinear dynamic simulations， Copula functions， and Monte Carlo methods， and covers resilience enhancement strategies including multi-objective optimization design， novel structural systems， new materials， and intelligent monitoring technologies. It also highlights that current evaluation frameworks are complex， with significant multi-hazard coupling effects and high computational demands. Future research should integrate multi-scale analytical methods and leverage artificial intelligence （AI） and geographic information systems （GIS） technologies to enable intelligent risk prediction and dynamic assessment， thereby ensuring the safe operation and rapid recovery of large shipbuilding bases.