Contingency Plans of Unconventional Emergency Based on Sequential Decision-making with Experts Preference

Abstract:

After analysing the suddenness,unexpectedness and other features of unconventional emergency , decision maker must dynamicly adjust the contingency plans according to the outcomes of phases and the changes of emergency and the judgement of experts’ preference. First of all, a mathematical model is established by using dynamic games. Then the process of sequential games between decision maker and emergency is analyzed in detail. The information about the future demand of resources is got through finitely sequential games in order to bring forth the optimal scheduling plans of resources and to provide support for the decision-making when an emergency bursts out. Finally , the method of how to use the model of sequential games to generate the best scheduling plans is given by a specific example.