Discrete Choice Model and Scenario Analysis on Trip Mode Choice Behavior for 2010 Expo Shanghai

Abstract:

The tremendous visitors of Expo 2101 Shanghai should test the responsive ability of urban transport system in Shanghai, and the trip mode choice result of Expo visitors should impact the special operations for Expo traffic and the routine management measures for urban traffic directly. Considering the complexity of background of Expo visitors, a two-stage gradual stated preference survey method is presented for the large-scale trip mode choice survey of Expo visitors. Based on these survey data, the effects of different factors were analyzed and three kinds of multinomial logit model for the trip mode choice behavior of local visitors, out-of-town one-day-trip visitors and out-of-town lodging visitors were provided in this paper. At last, several traffic management measures and policies for Expo 2010 Shanghai were contracted in scenario analysis. Suggestions were proposed for Expo 2010 Shanghai.

Key words:Expo Traffic Management; Trip Mode Choice; Gradual Stated Preference Survey; Discrete Choice Model; Scenario Analysis