Probabilistic Analysis and Risk Evaluation of Highway Rearend Collision

Abstract:

In terms of carfollowing critical condition,the characteristics of freeway rearend mechanism was analyzed.The four kinds of situation of freeway rearend collision were studied and the quantified index of rearend collision risk was inferred according to the rearend collision kinetic theory.Considering the random effect of driver’s reaction time,brake deceleration,the Monte Carlo method was used to calculate the value of rearend collision risk.The scope of threshold value was then obtained by fuzzy clustering method.The results can provide the theoretical foundation for early warning of freeway driving safety.

Key words:rearend collision mechanism; MonteCarlo method; freeway rearend collision; risk evaluation