Fitting Distribution of Freeway Incident Duration and Accelerated Failure Time Modeling

Abstract:

Distribution model choice, parameters’ estimation and measures of goodness of fit were carried out, and the best distribution fitting for incident duration data was LogLogistic distribution. Accelerated failure time (AFT) modeling was employed based on survival analysis and LogLogistic distribution. Then stepwise by Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to find the best group of factors for the prediction of freeway incident duration. The test result indicates that AFT model can represent actual incident duration and accept different distribution and missing data.