Calibrating and Modeling of Drivers’ Response to Variable Message Signs Based on Travel Scenario Reconstruction

Abstract:

A new method is proposed to calibrate drivers’ en route diversion behavior. Traffic data from loop detectors and vehicle license plate readers are used to reconstruct travel scenario. An analysis is made of the impact of variable message sign (VMS) messages on the drivers’ en route diversion behavior and a Probit model is therefore, established. Moreover, time factors, off ramp conditions, and visibility of downstream congestion significantly influence en route diversion behavior. The proposed model provides a reference for establishing related traffic models for active traffic routing and setting optimal strategies of information promulgation.

Key words:active traffic routing; variable message sign (VMS); drivers’ en route diversion behavior; real detected traffic data; Probit model