Traffic Incident Duration Forecasting Model of Expressway

Abstract:

According to the complexity and uncertainty of impact fact of traffic event duration on urban expressway, a new forecasting model using Bayesian network and non-parametric regression for traffic incident duration was proposed. Sample database, provided by Shanghai Expressway Monitoring Center, was generated by noise reduction. This paper determined the algorisms of structure learning and parameter learning based on data characteristics, and got forecasting results with non-parametric regression. Finally, the forecasting model was tested with new data and the results indicate the accuracy of the model.