Prediction of Arrival Flow Profile on Critical Section of Arterial

Abstract:

Coordinated control on arterial need to know about the relationship of transmission and change in the upstream and downstream on arterial. The traditional prediction of travel time or arrival distribution does not provide sufficient reference. According to the road conditions, some critical sections on arterial are defined. The arrival flow profile on critical sections are drawn by collecting actual vehicle detection data or simulation experiment data and the statistics of the arrival distribution at different periods corresponding to the intervals by time step. The impact of arrival flow profile by segment dispersion and signal control is analyzed. On the basis of the speed cumulative probability distribution, transition matrix is calculated, and the prediction method of arrival flow profile considering segment dispersion is proposed. Based on an analysis of the traffic dispersion process on green and the queuing on red, the prediction method of arrival flow profile considering signal control is proposed. Simulation studies show that the relative error of the predicted arrival flow profile is smaller, which validates the prediction methods.

Key words:arterial coordination; prediction of arrival flow rate; transition matrix; segment dispersion; signal control