Cloud Model based Seismic Risk Assessment of Road in Earthquake Region

Abstract:

The risk factors were discriminated according to its influence on seismic risk of highway based on the principal component analysis and expert surveys. Four factors such as the peak acceleration, vegetation coverage, formation lithology, slope, were selected as evaluation factors for their significant effect. Traditional analytic hierarchy process was improved by resorting to the cloud model, and a weight approach was proposed for seismic risk assessment based on cloud model analytic hierarchy process. The scale scores of each risk factor was studied by using geographic information systems technology platform. The assessment model of seismic risk was set up, and the method was validated. The results indicate that the seismic risk index of the experiment area is 1.00~6.96. Seismic risk value of most regional is less than 5.00, the maximum value in the south and the southeast of the starting point with high peak acceleration, hard rock and large slop is close to 7. Risk assessment results agree well with the measured data.

Key words:road engineering; earthquake; risk assessment; cloud model; principal component analysis; analytic hierarchy process