Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Based on Probability Density Evolution Method

Abstract:

By introducing the stochastic ground motion model based on the probability density evolution method, the exceedance probability of engineering structures at different peak ground acceleration in a certain site and period can be assessed and presented, and the key problem of selecting the ground motion in seismic fragility assessment can be solved. Furthermore, when the structures encounter the earthquake ground motion in a different exceedance probability, the basal amplitude parameter of the stochastic ground motion model will be increased to calculate the failure probability of engineering structures at each limit state, which is consistent to the increment dynamic analysis of the seismic fragility analysis. The research that assigns the probability to the measurement of the ground motion intensity for the seismic fragility curves avoids the difference between the different methodologies used in the seismic fragility analysis. The proposed methodology should integrate with the total probability decision framework of performance based earthquake engineering to provide a solid theoretical foundation for the seismic probabilistic safety assessment of engineering structures.

Key words:seismic risk; seismic fragility; probability density evolution; total probability decision framework; stochastic ground motion model