Coastal Wetlands Impact Assessment of Sea Level Rise

Abstract:

Wetlands area change and ecosystem service value change for sea level rise are evaluated by using Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model. The area of Hillsborough County, Florida was taken as the case study, where the sea level is assumed to rise 1 meter from 2010 to 2100. Five affecting processes of inundation, erosion, overwash, saturation, accretion are included in the assessment model. The results show: (1) Dry lands area will decrease by 30.37km2, while wetlands area will increase by 30.37km2. Estuarine open water, beaches, salt marshes, regularly flooded marsh will increase by 394.29%, 380.62%, 141.93%, 121.41% respectively. Irregularly flooded marsh, tidal fresh marsh, tidal flats, estuarine beaches, inland shore will decrease by 95.52% , 91.31%, 59.29%, 37.59%, 21.44% respectively. Mangroves, inland open water, swamp, inland fresh marsh, cypress swamp will be less affected, which will decrease by 6.67%, 4.05%, 2.35%, 0.90 %, 0.10% respectively. (2) Although the total wetlands area will be increased, but the ecosystem services value will be reduced due to the loss of beach and freshwater wetlands, which will decrease from $ 616,720,000 in 2010 to $ 615,480,000 in 2100. The values of art and entertainment, water regulation, climate regulation, spiritual and cultural will be reduced, while values of water supply, habitat protection, disturbance regulation and waste disposal will enhanced.