A New Bayesian Method for Reliability Assessment of Products with Wiener Process Degradation

Abstract:

For the reliability assessment of products with Wiener process degradation, a new method of Bayesian estimation was proposed by analyzing two factors—prior distributions and loss functions. First, the posterior distribution of the parameters was theoretically derived with the assumption that the parameters of Wiener process follow the conjugate prior distribution. Then the Bayesian estimation results were calculated based on the quadratic loss function, absolute loss function and 0 1 loss function respectively. Finally, the reliability assessment of aeroengines was analyzed as a practical example. It is shown that this new method has a wider range of application, and its calculation process is simpler compared to existing methods. Moreover, for the reliability assessment of aeroengines, the parameter estimation based on the absolute loss function has the best fitting of these three loss functions.