Scenario Analysis of CO2 and Pollutant Emission Mitigation Potential for China’s Road Transportation Sector

Abstract:

In order to assess the emission reduction potential in road transportation sector in China, a LEAPTran model based on long range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) was developed. With the model, 2 scenarios of CO2 and pollutant emissions in China’s transport sector from 2012 to 2030, Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and Comprehensive Measure (CM) scenario, which included three available emission reduction subscenarios, namely organizationalmanagement (OM) subscenario, technologicalprogress (TP) subscenario and energeticstructure promotion (EP) subscenario, were first simulated. Then, the energy consumption up to 2030 was estimated in these five scenarios. Based on the emission reduction contribution rates of each scenario, the promotion schedule of emission reduction measures and key emission reduction sectors were identified. The simulation results show that the emissions of CO2, CO, NOx, PM10 and HC in 2030 in the CM scenario are respectively 39.6%, 58.6%, 91.5%, 79.9% and 83.9% lower than those in the BAU scenario. In the subscenarios, OM is the most effective measure for reducing CO2 and CO emissions, while TP is the most effective measure for reducing NOx, PM10 and HC emissions. EP has a smaller effect in reducing emissions, but it shows a rapid growth and may play an important role in the future. In conclusion, There is a great potential for reduction in road transportation sector in China. In order to achieve the shortterm emission reduction targets, Chinese government should implement OM and TP measures, such as the promotion of transportation energysaving technologies and development of the more strict emission standard.