Financial Risk Control Evaluation in International Megaprojects Based on Back Propagation Neural Network

Abstract:

An evaluation framework consisting of 32 evaluation indicators grouped under 7 categories was built. The weights of the indicators were obtained through an expert questionnaire survey and were then computed using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP), which generated 30 groups of back propagation neural network(BPNN) training samples and 5 sets of calibration samples. Based on the results, a nonlinear mapping relation model of the financial risk control of international megaprojects was constructed. Finally, an EPC(engineering, procurement, construction) project in Saudi Arabia was used as a case to illustrate the evaluation system.

Key words:financial risk control; international megaprojects; fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP); back propagation neural network(BPNN)