Prediction and Analysis of the Impacts on Wave in the Yangtze River Estuary due to Potential Sea Level Rise

Abstract:

A numerical wave model of the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) was established based on MIKE 21 SW and validated with field wave measurements. After the validation, the model was applied to simulate three scenarios of different sea level rises (0.5, 1.0, 1.5m). The general changing features of wave due to sea level rise in the YRE can be summarized: the time history of wave height and wave period agree with that of tidal level, and the increase of wave height at high water level is larger than that at low water level; wave height increase inside the entrance is less than that out of the entrance, and shoals are places with the biggest impact where increased wave height on the windward side is larger than that on the leeward side; the impact of sea level rise on wave period is similar to that of wave height, but is less affected.

Key words:the Yangtze River Estuary; sea level rise; MIKE 21; wave height; wave period